Reference figures based on Reuters, Fitch, Chatham House, and Atlantic Council reports (April 2026).
Losses breakdown by sector
Sectoral analysis of cumulative losses in $B, ranked by impact.
Indicators compared: pre- and post-war
| Indicator | Pre-war (Feb 2026) | Post-war start (Apr 2026) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil output | 4.3M bpd | 900K bpd | −79% |
| Oil exports | 3.334M bpd | Near zero (south) | −100% |
| Growth forecast | +1.9% | −1.6% | −3.5 pts |
| Exchange rate ($/IQD) | 1,300 | ~1,550 | −19% |
| Basic food prices | Index 100% | +15 to +25% | High inflation |
| Maritime shipping insurance | 0.15–0.25% | 1–5% of vessel value | +1000%+ |
| Port imports | 100% (normal) | ~50% | −50% |
| Daily airport flights | ~200 flights | Zero | −100% |
Timeline of impact events
Major events shaping the war's cost on Iraq's economy, in chronological order.
US–Israeli strikes on Iran begin
Iraqi airspace immediately closed; all civilian flights halted. Force majeure declared by airlines.
Iran announces Strait of Hormuz closure
Tanker traffic drops 90% within days; Iraqi southern oil exports effectively halted. Global oil prices spike temporarily.
Reuters: Iraqi output down to 1.3M bpd
Basra storage tanks at capacity; no export outlet. Oil firms declare force majeure. Daily losses estimated in hundreds of millions.
Strike on a vessel at Basra port
Iranian strike on a ship in the STS transfer zone near Basra port. All oil export terminals temporarily halted.
Strike on Iran's South Pars gas field
Israel hits the South Pars field. Partial cut of gas supplies to Iraq, which depends on Iranian gas for ~30% of electricity, causes wide outages.
Shafaq: aviation sector losses $42.98M
Breakdown: $5.14M overflight fees, $6.55M Iraqi Airways, $17.32M airports + $13.97M ancillary services (fuel, ground transport).
Fitch/BMI cuts growth forecast
Fitch/BMI revises Iraq's growth forecast from +1.9% to −1.6%, citing prolonged conflict and budget revenue deterioration.
UNDP regional cost study
Regional growth shortfall estimated at $120–194B. Non-belligerent states (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon) hit via tourism and trade.
Methodology & sources
The observatory draws on open data from credible international institutions, with figures updated as new estimates emerge.
- Time scope From 28 February 2026 to publication date, with daily monitoring of major changes.
- Sector classification Six sectors: oil, aviation, shipping, ports, electricity, and macroeconomy.
- Estimation method Average of international estimates, with reconciliation of source gaps and adoption of the lowest confirmed figure.
- Update cadence Weekly review, with exceptional updates upon release of major international reports.
- Reuters
- Fitch Ratings · BMI
- Chatham House
- Atlantic Council
- Shafaq News
- The National
- UNDP
- IRU (International Road Transport Union)
- World Bank
- IMF