Reference figures based on ISW, ACLED, Reuters, Chatham House, and Atlantic Council reports (2024–2026).
Regional Threat Axes
Analysis of the impact level of each threat axis on Iraq's national security, ranked by severity.
Threat Indicators: 2024 vs. 2026
| Threat Axis | Indicator | 2024 | 2026 / Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran–Israel tensions | Escalation level | Missile exchange Apr 2024 | 12-day war June 2025 |
| Iraq armed factions | Official fighter count | ~204,000 | ~238,000 (+95% budget) |
| US forces in Iraq | Troop count | ~2,500 troops | Phased withdrawal; 300 advisors remain |
| Red Sea Houthi attacks | Number of attacks | +130 (Oct 2024) | +190 by Oct 2024 |
| Suez Canal transit | Ships per month | 2,068 (Nov 2023) | 877 (Oct 2024) — down 58% |
| ISIS in Syria & Iraq | Activity level | Low–Moderate | Rising after Assad's fall |
| PKK in northern Iraq | Organizational status | Ongoing Turkish operations | PKK dissolves May 2025 |
| Iran–Iraq border | Militarization level | Moderate | Sharp escalation post-June 2025 |
Timeline of Major Regional Events
Key regional events affecting Iraq's security since 2024, in chronological order.
Iran strikes Erbil with ballistic missiles
The IRGC fired 11 Fateh-110 ballistic missiles at Erbil, capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, claiming to target an alleged Mossad headquarters. Four civilians were killed, 17 injured. Iraq recalled its ambassador to Tehran and condemned the attack as a flagrant violation of sovereignty. (HRW, Iran Watch 2024)
Tower 22 drone attack: 3 US soldiers killed
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq — an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia coalition — struck Tower 22, a US outpost near the Jordan-Syria-Iraq border. Three US soldiers were killed and 47 injured. The US retaliated with strikes on 85 targets in Iraq and Syria. (Wikipedia, Stimson Center 2024)
First direct Iran–Israel missile exchange
Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones toward Israel on April 13 in retaliation for the strike on its Damascus consulate — the first direct exchange in 45 years. Israel responded by striking Iran's Isfahan radar systems. A historic escalation threshold was crossed. (Forward, ACLED 2025)
Assad regime falls in Syria
Syrian rebel factions led by HTS topple Bashar al-Assad; he flees to Russia. Iraq faces an unstable border with Syria and potential ISIS resurgence. The US welcomes the transition; Turkey backs the opposition factions. (CFR, Crisis Group 2026)
PKK announces ceasefire and withdrawal from Turkey
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) declares a ceasefire on February 27, 2025, following a call by imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan. It formally announces dissolution in May 2025 with symbolic weapons-burning in the Qandil mountains. Turkey demands Iraq address remnants in Sinjar and Mosul. (Kurdish Peace Institute, Al-Sharq Al-Awsat 2026)
12-Day War: Israel launches 360 strikes on Iran
Israel carries out nearly 360 strikes across 27 Iranian provinces starting June 13, targeting nuclear, military, and missile infrastructure. The US strikes Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22. Over 1,100 killed in Iran; 500+ Iranian missiles launched. The conflict reshapes regional deterrence. (ACLED 2025)
US begins phased troop withdrawal from Iraq
The US begins withdrawing from its ~2,500 troops in Iraq, redeploying most to Kurdistan and Syria. Plans leave 250–350 troops at Ayn al-Asad Airbase and ~300 advisors for surveillance post-2026. A withdrawal agreement was signed between the US and Iraq in September 2024. (Gulf International Forum, Reuters 2025)
Turkey signals military operation in Sinjar against PKK remnants
Turkish FM Hakan Fidan signals a 'simple' military operation against remaining PKK elements in Sinjar and the Qandil mountains. Turkey held 20+ meetings with PMF leadership. Iraq's National Security Council formally designated the PKK a banned organization in 2024. (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat 2026)
Iran reinforces Iraq border with missiles and IRGC units
The IRGC repositions along the entire Iran-Iraq border, deploying Khorramshahr and Fateh missile platforms and Shahed-136 drones from Kermanshah and West Azerbaijan provinces. Iranian-Kurdish opposition sources describe the buildup as 'unprecedented' in scale and sophistication. (Alhurra 2026)
Methodology & Sources
The observatory draws on open-source data from leading international research institutions specializing in regional security and conflict.
- Geographic & temporal scope The Middle East and its neighborhood as affecting Iraq's security; period 2024–2026 with historical reference where relevant.
- Threat classification Eight axes: Iran–US–Israel tensions, armed factions, Houthi attacks, Syria, PKK, ISIS, Gulf spillover, and the Iran–Iraq border.
- Severity levels Four-tier scale: Critical / High / Medium / Escalating. Based on ISW, ACLED, and US ODNI assessments.
- Update cadence Regular review upon publication of major regional reports from ISW, ACLED, Crisis Group, Reuters, Atlantic Council, and Chatham House.
- Institute for the Study of War · ISW (understandingwar.org)
- ACLED — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (acleddata.com)
- International Crisis Group (crisisgroup.org)
- Reuters
- Long War Journal (longwarjournal.org)
- Atlantic Council (atlanticcouncil.org)
- Chatham House (chathamhouse.org)
- Gulf International Forum (gulfif.org)
- Human Rights Watch (hrw.org)
- EU Agency for Asylum · EUAA (euaa.europa.eu)