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V2-D04-C04
Iraq Vision 2045 · Part Four: The Economy and National Production
V2-D04-C04

Agriculture and Food Security

Data freeze: 5 October 2026 · Version 1.0 · Strategic horizon: 2027–2045

Agriculture and food security in Iraq Vision 2045 are measured neither by acreage nor by closing the door to imports, but by Iraq's ability to produce more food and value with less water, protect a resilient domestic core of strategic commodities, connect farmers to markets and processing, and use stocks and trade to stabilise food security rather than turn agriculture into a system of permanent support.

Chapter introduction: from manufacturing to agriculture and food security

The preceding chapter established that a productive economy is built not by protecting a single factory or replacing every import, but by deepening value, domestic linkages, quality and competitiveness. In food industries specifically, a factory encounters limits it cannot overcome alone: fluctuating agricultural raw-material supplies, scarce water, uneven crops, farmers without a stable market signal, post-harvest losses, and transport and storage that may consume part of the value before it reaches the processing line. This chapter therefore takes up the chain at its beginning: land, water, the farmer, crops and the food system.

The central problem is not that Iraq ‘does not farm’. Data for 2024–2026 demonstrate substantial production in cereals, vegetables and livestock, as well as the state's ability to increase production in favourable seasons. The problem is deeper: output exposed to fluctuations in water, rainfall and prices; agricultural decisions not always linked to water's opportunity cost; measurement gaps between suitable, cultivated and irrigated land; and gaps in productivity per unit of water and in post-harvest systems. The agricultural vision is therefore a plan for productivity, resilience and markets, not horizontal expansion. 12

1. Executive Summary

The Vision begins with a different definition of agricultural success. Success is not the largest number of cultivated dunums, the highest volume of government purchases or nominal self-sufficiency in every commodity. It is a food and agricultural system producing more value, food and income in return for the water, land, labour and capital used; maintaining resilient domestic capacity in commodities whose disruption poses a social or fiscal risk; and absorbing drought and trade disruption without a collapse in food supply or producers' income.

The baseline explains this definition. The Statistics Authority's final 2025 wheat and barley report estimates wheat output at approximately 4.379 million tonnes, down 16.3% from 5.234 million tonnes in 2024. Wheat area fell from 8.177 to 7.050 million dunums, while average yield based on cultivated area fell from 640.1 to 621.1 kg/dunum. Irrigated land accounted for 96.5% of wheat production in 2025. These figures do not imply permanent failure; they show a strategic commodity's sensitivity to water, acreage and seasonal conditions. 3

By contrast, FAO's September 2026 brief estimates a better cereal harvest following improved rainfall, with 5.6 million tonnes of wheat and 6.5 million tonnes of total cereals outside the Kurdistan Region, while keeping cereal import requirements at approximately 5.5 million tonnes in 2026/2027. This does not contradict Iraqi statistics: the year, coverage and methodology differ. The lesson is that strong domestic production and trade are compatible, and that food security requires production, stocks, import routes and stable demand together. 4

Water is the governing constraint. The National Development Plan 2024–2028 itself makes ‘achieving sustainable food security’ an objective for agriculture and water resources, putting overall irrigation efficiency at 46% in 2024 with a target of 53% in 2028, and water conveyance and distribution efficiency at 76%, rising to 81%. In 2026, the Ministry of Water Resources received the WaPOR tool in the West Gharraf project to measure water use and productivity through remote sensing. The proposed Vision builds on this: moving from counting irrigation devices and planned acreage to measuring actual water, crops, value, losses and quality. 56

The sector's structure also shows why the state's role must differ from the farmer's. The National Development Plan estimates that the private sector generates approximately 99% of agricultural output, while agricultural capital formation remains heavily dependent on the public sector. In other words, the state bears much of the responsibility for canals, dams, data, infrastructure, research and public services, while daily production decisions are dispersed among producers. Vision 2045 therefore needs not ‘a ministry that farms more’, but a state that manages water, information, rules, infrastructure and stocks, enabling farmers and investors to make better production decisions. 7

2. Definitions and methodological boundaries

2.1. Operational glossary

Concept Operational definition in the Vision What it does not mean
Food security The availability of sufficient, safe and nutritious food; economic and physical access to it and its utilisation; and the stability of these conditions over time. Not self-sufficiency in every commodity.
Self-sufficiency The ratio of domestic production to domestic consumption/supply under a specific time and commodity definition. Not an absolute goal where water, financial or risk costs exceed the alternative.
Food sovereignty The ability of the state and society to manage the food system's governing choices and avoid critical dependence on a single source. Does not mean closing trade.
Water productivity The quantity, value or food produced per unit of water consumed/used under a published measurement method. Not irrigation-network efficiency alone.
Irrigation efficiency The ratio of water beneficial to the crop to water withdrawn/conveyed, according to the measurement level: network or field. Better technology does not guarantee lower total consumption if acreage expands without a cap.
Agricultural resilience The ability of production, income and supply chains to continue and recover in the face of drought, heat, pests and trade disruption. Not simply stockpiling a single crop.
Crop portfolio A mix of crops and livestock activities that accounts for water, soil, markets, risks and value. Not a centrally mandated list for every farmer.
Post-harvest loss Quantitative or qualitative loss between harvest and consumption/processing due to storage, transport, sorting and refrigeration. Not final-consumer waste alone.

2.2. Evidence rule

The chapter adopts a working figure when its data year, coverage, unit and definition are clear. If an official Iraqi source differs from an international estimate, it does not choose a ‘middle’ figure; it uses each for the claim it was designed to support. Current-season estimates or executive-body statements are treated as situational updates, not substitute historical series for statistical surveys. This matters in agriculture because differences in season, rainfall and geographical coverage can turn a superficial numerical comparison into a false conclusion.

Targets fall into two categories: existing government targets that can be adopted for their stated period, such as the development plan's 2028 irrigation-efficiency target; and new strategic indicators that cannot receive a number before a baseline exists, such as production value per cubic metre, losses in date or vegetable chains, or import concentration for a critical commodity. After 2030, reviewing baselines becomes a prerequisite for setting 2035–2045 figures.

3. Iraq's agricultural and food baseline

3.1. The economy and production

The National Development Plan places agriculture at the heart of diversification, setting a planning trajectory in which agricultural output at constant prices rises from IQD 5.500 trillion in 2024 to IQD 7.764 trillion in 2028, with targeted annual growth of 9% under the plan's assumptions, and its contribution to constant-price GDP rises from 2.5% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2028. These are plan figures, not results already achieved, and must be assessed at the end of the period before being extended to 2045. 8

The institutional economic structure is unusual. The plan's table estimates that the private sector generates 99.6% of agricultural output in 2022 and 99% in 2028, while the public sector represented 95.2% of agricultural fixed capital formation in 2022, with a target of 90% in 2028. Production assets are thus distributed among farmers and companies, but much network capital—irrigation and public infrastructure—remains governmental. This justifies separating ‘the state's role’ from ‘ownership of production’. 9

Indicator Value/year The Vision's interpretation
Agricultural output — constant prices IQD 5.500 trillion in 2024 — plan target A short-term planning reference, not a definitive actual baseline.
Agriculture's contribution to output — constant prices 2.5% in 2024, target 2.9% in 2028 Not directly comparable with a current-price accounts share without harmonising the price basis.
Wheat production 5.234 million tonnes in 2024; 4.379 million tonnes in 2025 Clear volatility; 2025 provides an important actual statistical baseline.
Wheat yield/cultivated area 640.1, then 621.1 kg/dunum Water and location must be interpreted, not quantity alone.
Poultry projects actually producing 3,008 of 5,364 in 2025 — excluding the Region An operating and continuity gap, not merely a need to count new projects.
Live broiler production 163.5 thousand tonnes in 2025 — excluding the Region Down 8.3% from 2024 according to the Authority's report.
Informal agricultural jobs 98.1% in the 2021 Labour Force Survey An old baseline, but it demonstrates fragile protection; an updated survey is needed.

3.2. Land: a discrepancy that must not be concealed

The Statistics Authority's environmental indicators report 13.5 million dunums as ‘land suitable for agriculture’ in 2022–2024 and 11.9 million dunums cultivated in the 2024 winter season. By contrast, the Ministry of Water Resources table in the National Development Plan reports 28 million dunums under the same heading. The two figures cannot be combined, nor one chosen without explanation, because coverage, administrative definition or reclamation potential may differ. The Vision's decision is to record the discrepancy and require the 2027–2030 phase to reconcile land and soil maps, use rights and classification methodology before setting a national area target. 1011

Subject Source/figure Reason not to combine Working Decision
Land suitable for agriculture Statistics Authority: 13.5 million dunums in 2024 An environmental statistical definition/coverage apparently inconsistent with the plan. Used only as the source's figure.
Land suitable for agriculture Development Plan/Water Resources: 28 million dunums May include a broader potential or planning scope. Not used for a utilisation rate before harmonising the definition.
Wheat 2025 Statistics Authority: 4.379 million tonnes A specified national year and official survey/estimate. 2025 production baseline.
Wheat 2026 FAO: 5.6 million tonnes, outside the Kurdistan Region A different season and coverage, and an early estimate. A signal for the 2026 season, not a direct extension of the series.
Stocks/government marketing Official purchasing or stock figures Marketed volume is not production; it may be affected by stocks and arrangements. A separate stock and procurement register.

4. The real problem: productivity, water and markets

It is easy to reduce the agricultural crisis to water scarcity, but water explains only part of the outcome. Even in a year with better water availability, agriculture may remain low-return if the variety is weak, the field uneven, irrigation poorly timed, a pest detected late, market prices provide no signal before planting, or storage forces distress sales at harvest. The reverse also holds: technology alone cannot save a crop planted in an unsuitable location or within a market chain without demand.

The chapter therefore divides productivity into four links: biological productivity (yield/dunum), water productivity (yield or value/m3), economic productivity (value added and net income/dunum), and chain productivity (what arrives in marketable condition after loss, storage and transport). Improving the first link while wasting water or allowing prices to collapse is not success. Reducing water use while cutting farmers' income enough to drive them off the land is not sustainability either.

The old question Vision 2045's operational question
How many dunums did we cultivate? What value, food, income and risks did each dunum produce, and how much water did it consume?
How many irrigation devices did we distribute? How many devices actually operate, over how many dunums, and how much water have they saved while maintaining/improving returns?
How many tonnes did the state purchase? What is the purchase for: strategic stocks, income stabilisation or price support? What are its cost and outcome?
Have we closed imports? Is the decision based on a reliable domestic surplus, stocks, prices, quality and a published period?
Has production increased? Has farmers' net income risen, and has the chain remained stable in a dry season too?

5. Food security is not absolute self-sufficiency

FAO's definition of food security rests on four interrelated dimensions: availability, access, utilisation and stability. A country can therefore achieve high domestic production of a commodity yet remain food-insecure if households cannot afford it, quality and nutrition are poor, or production collapses every two years with drought. Imports can also contribute to security where sources are diversified and stocks, alternative routes and payment capacity exist. 12

Iraq needs a ‘resilient core’, not a ‘comprehensive self-sufficiency list’. Wheat and certain staples carry clear social and fiscal weight and warrant defensible domestic production capacity and stocks. For other goods, importing a share may be more rational than depleting scarce water, provided multiple trade sources and adequate stocks exist. This decision is not settled ideologically, but through a matrix combining commodity importance, import sensitivity, water cost, storability, nutrition, alternatives and market resilience.

Food-security dimension Measurement question Policy instrument
Availability Are sufficient domestic/imported quantities available throughout the year? Production, trade, stocks, logistics.
Access Can households afford and access food? Incomes, markets, targeted social protection, price stability.
Use Is food safe and nutritious, and does it arrive in suitable condition? Food safety, water and health, dietary diversity, quality.
Stability Can the preceding dimensions withstand drought, route closure or a price shock? Diversification, stocks, early warning, contingency plans, production resilience.

6. Water as a production constraint: from dunums to value per cubic metre

Agriculture is Iraq's largest water user, so food security cannot be separated from water's opportunity cost. Turning this conclusion into policy requires precision, however: water ‘withdrawn’ is not the same as water ‘consumed’. Some seepage or drainage may return to the water system, and some upgrades may increase yield but encourage farmers to expand acreage, eliminating savings at basin level. The Vision therefore seeks not ‘drip irrigation everywhere’, but a measurable agricultural water budget connecting allocation to season, location, crop type and outcome.

The crucial transition is a dual measure: kg of food/m3 for bulk commodities, and value added or net income/m3 for high-value commodities, with a third resilience indicator so that value alone does not encourage neglect of strategic cereals. WaPOR, received by the Ministry of Water Resources in West Gharraf during 2026, opens a practical remote-sensing measurement pathway, but must be integrated with discharge, field and crop data rather than used as an isolated satellite image. 13

Measurement layer Indicator Why?
Basin/irrigation project Withdrawals, allocations, operational losses and return flows To understand the water budget and avoid treating every loss alike.
Field Water entering the field + moisture/scheduling + yield To measure the effect of management and technology.
Crop kg/m3 + IQD value added/m3 To compare uses without reducing food security to value alone.
Chain Post-harvest loss/water embodied in lost food Because preserving produce can sometimes save more than increasing withdrawals.
Season Indicator variation between wet and dry years To avoid basing decisions on a single season.

7. Modernising irrigation: technology, service and governance

The National Development Plan establishes a measurable short-term trajectory: overall irrigation efficiency rises from 46% in 2024 to 53% in 2028, water conveyance and distribution efficiency from 76% to 81%, while field irrigation efficiency remains at 61% between 2024 and 2028. These figures matter because they prevent the Vision from inventing a new trajectory, but are insufficient alone. If field efficiency improves while operation, maintenance and distribution remain poorly managed, or if a water-intensive crop expands without a cap, the expected national impact will not materialise. 14

The proposed upgrade is an ‘irrigation service’, not ‘equipment distribution’. The service begins with a field and soil survey, identification of water source, pressure and pumping energy, and technology selection, followed by training, operation, maintenance, spare parts and before/after measurement. The installed device, actual area served, season, crop, estimated water use and yield must be recorded. The state can then finance part of the transition on the basis of outcomes rather than a purchase invoice alone.

In 2026, Iraqi bodies and partners launched programmes to expand modern irrigation, announcing figures for system contracts and targeted acreage. The Vision does not turn these statements into an achievement baseline: a contract is not installation, installation is not operation, and operation is not a saving. The programme indicator is ‘an operating dunum with before/after measurement and documented water/yield’, supported by independent sample auditing.

Service stage Condition for progression Auditable output
Diagnosis Soil/source/pressure/crop/salinity map A baseline field file.
Design Technology suitability and energy and maintenance cost Design and water budget.
Installation Quality inspection and pressure/distribution testing Technical acceptance, not an invoice alone.
Operation Training + irrigation schedule + seasonal support Operating log.
Measurement Water, yield and value before/after Real savings/improvement.
Review Verify that expansion does not consume the savings again Decision to continue/adjust support.

8. Land, soil, salinity and desertification

Agricultural land is not a uniform geometric area. Salinity, irrigation-water quality, drainage, soil degradation, desertification and land ownership/tenure fundamentally alter productivity. Vision 2045 therefore does not use ‘dunums reclaimed’ alone. Every reclamation programme needs a baseline for salinity, drainage, groundwater depth, organic matter or crop-suitable characteristics, and post-investment maintenance costs. Land reclaimed once but returning to salinity a few years later is not a sustainable productive asset.

The land portfolio also requires spatial decisions. Orchards differ from wheat fields, saline land from rainfed land, and land near a market and refrigeration from isolated land. An ‘agricultural-water atlas’ is therefore the first decision infrastructure: layers covering land, soil, salinity, water, climate, crops, productivity and markets, at a level that supports planning without turning farmers' data into a punitive instrument or unnecessary disclosure.

Problem Initial measurement Intervention before expansion
Soil/water salinity EC/salinity and drainage maps Drainage, water management and tolerant crops; feasibility assessment.
Desertification/vegetation cover Cover/erosion/local dust storms Shelterbelts/land restoration and regulated grazing appropriate to location.
Fragmented holdings Size/shape/service access Shared services/voluntary consolidation/contracting, not expropriation.
Unused land The reason for non-use, not the figure alone Remove water/ownership/market constraints where viable.
Conflicting land maps Different definitions and bodies A unified national data register before an area target.

9. Wheat and strategic cereals

Wheat is a test case because state intervention extends from seeds and water planning to marketing, stocks and the food distribution network. Official 2025 data show declines not only in production but also in area and yield. Moreover, 96.5% of output came from irrigated land according to the report, making water cost central to wheat policy even if the crop's food-security importance justifies different treatment from a high-value commercial crop. 15

The Vision does not abolish government purchasing; it redefines it. Purchasing is an instrument for stocks, stability and price signalling. If it becomes an open-ended guarantee regardless of variety, quality, water and location, it may encourage irrational expansion. The guaranteed price, where used, is therefore separated from quality and efficiency rewards, required stock quantities are determined through an official method, and private-market, processing and contracting channels remain available so that the state does not become the sole buyer.

Wheat component 2025 baseline 2045 decision
Production 4.379 million tonnes No fixed 2045 target before a demand and water model; maintain a resilient production core.
Cultivated area 7.050 million dunums Do not use acreage as an independent goal.
Yield/cultivated area 621.1 kg/dunum Increase productivity through water, soil and variety, measuring variation between governorates.
Irrigated share of production 96.5% Include water/tonne and water/value in the planning decision.
Quality No simplified national baseline here Quality/protein/moisture/impurity grades linked to price and storage.
Stocks Require a unified, auditable register Measure time coverage and a rotation policy, rather than announce a bare figure.

10. Paddy rice and water-intensive crops

Iraqi agriculture's difficult decision emerges in a crop with high cultural, market and local value but strong sensitivity to water, such as paddy rice. ‘Permanent prohibition’ dissipates knowledge and a value chain; ‘unconditional expansion’ ignores water scarcity. The solution is a clear annual water allocation, eligible areas, consumption-reducing technologies and management, water-productivity measurement, and expansion tied to a pilot season's outcome.

In June 2026, FAO discussed with Iraqi partners expanding mechanical rice transplanting in Najaf to improve water-use efficiency and resilience. The Vision adopts the lesson that technology is tested against water, yield, cost and labour together, not declared a national solution before measurement. Rice can model the management of every water-intensive crop: water cap, geographical scope, trial, measurement and then decision. 16

Water-intensive crop gateway Decision question
Importance Does it have food/cultural/value-chain significance justifying a water allocation?
Location Are soil, water, drainage and climate suitable?
Efficiency Is there technology/management that actually increases water's value?
Alternative What would the water's value be in another crop/activity?
Market Do price, quality and processing provide acceptable income?
Season What is the drought scenario? Is the allocation reduced automatically under published rules?

11. Feed, livestock and poultry

Food security does not end with cereals. Poultry, eggs, milk and meat depend on feed, veterinary health, energy, refrigeration and prices. The Statistics Authority's 2025 poultry report, excluding the Kurdistan Region, estimates 5,364 projects, but only 3,008 were actually producing and 2,292 were idle: the operating gap is therefore more than a shortage of projects. Live broiler production also fell to 163.5 thousand tonnes in 2025, while table-egg production declined to approximately 4.313 billion eggs. 17

This picture changes policy. The priority is not granting licences and new projects while existing assets remain idle, but diagnosing why they stopped: feed, working capital, disease, electricity/energy, markets, import volatility or management. A selective restart programme is built on viability, not rescuing every asset. Feed security must also be separated from self-sufficiency: importing maize or soybeans may remain necessary, but dependence on one source or the absence of operating stocks increases risks.

Link Indicator to develop Policy decision
Feed Feed cost/kg of production + concentration of import sources Diversification, viable domestic alternatives, operating stocks.
Animal health Mortality/disease/vaccination coverage and warning Laboratory/surveillance/biosecurity network.
Projects Share actually producing among licensed/registered projects Viable restarts before support for new establishments.
Refrigeration Cold-chain loss and time Private refrigeration and transport investment with standards.
Market Producer-wholesale-retail margin and its volatility Market transparency and competition, not permanent administered pricing.

12. Dates, orchards, vegetables and high-value crops

If cereals test security, orchards, vegetables and dates test value per unit of water, labour and export capability. These activities can generate greater value per unit of area, but are more sensitive to quality, sorting, refrigeration, packaging and speed to market. Supporting an orchard therefore fails if its output remains mixed across varieties and grades or is sold under pressure without storage and contracts.

For dates, for example, the priority is not simply more palms, but productivity per palm, varietal quality, orchard health, husbandry, harvesting, sorting, packaging, processing and market access. For vegetables, greenhouse/protected cultivation, scheduling, contracts and refrigeration matter more than seasonal expansion that causes prices to collapse. This is where C04 meets C03: the farm produces material of consistent quality, while processing/packaging adds shelf life, value and a market.

Chain Potential bottleneck Outcome Indicator
Dates Variety/husbandry/pests/sorting/packaging Sale value/kg, share of grades suitable for export/processing, water/value.
Fresh vegetables Seasonal volatility, losses and lack of refrigeration Post-harvest loss, producer price, days from harvest to market.
Orchards Continuous water supply, salinity and tree age Productivity per tree/dunum and stability across seasons.
Protected crops Energy, inputs and market Net value/m2/m3 of water, sales contract, quality.
Specialist plants/crops A small market and a quality standard Contract/exports and traceability, not cultivated acreage alone.

13. Seeds, extension, mechanisation and agricultural data

13.1. Variety before support

Much of a productivity leap comes from an apparently small decision: a variety suited to location, water, heat and market; reliable seed; the right planting date; and fertiliser and pest management. The seed system must therefore move from quantities distributed to varietal performance: yield, stability, water, quality, resistance and market acceptance. The Vision does not prescribe one variety for Iraq; climatic and soil diversity require a portfolio of varieties.

13.2. Extension as a decision service

Traditional agricultural extension based on a general lecture is insufficient. Farmers need a seasonal service: weather and pest alerts, irrigation schedules, soil-based fertiliser advice, market prices and performance comparisons. A digital platform is useful only if it simplifies a decision; a new app should not be created where an existing platform can be expanded or government data integrated. Extension success is measured by changed practice and outcomes, not seminar counts.

13.3. Mechanisation as a service, not ownership

Not every holding needs to own every machine. Contract mechanisation and private service centres may be more efficient for small and medium-sized holdings, particularly for harvesting, precision levelling, planting and spraying. The state's role is standards, finance/guarantees where a market gap exists, and maintenance and safety skills, not distributing assets that stop when spare parts are unavailable.

Data asset Required condition Use
Field/holding A spatial/administrative identifier protecting privacy Link season, water, crop and service.
Soil Standardised tests and updated maps Variety/fertiliser/salinity/reclamation.
Weather and remote sensing Real-time/seasonal data Early warning and irrigation scheduling.
Market Wholesale/farm-gate prices and volumes Planting and marketing decisions.
Water Allocation/flow/remote sensing Water productivity and allocation review.
Crop Yield, quality and sales Learning and programme comparison.

14. From field to market: post-harvest systems, refrigeration and sorting

Increasing production without preserving it may be the most expensive way to increase food. Every kilogram lost after harvest embodies water, energy, labour and inputs used without return. Vision 2045 therefore places post-harvest loss at the heart of ‘resource productivity’, particularly for vegetables, fruit, dates and animal products. It does not invent a national loss figure: methodology, commodity and season vary, and chain-level baselines must be established.

The solution is not to build general government warehouses everywhere. The problem begins with mapping: where is production concentrated, when does it peak, what temperature/moisture does it require, how far is the market, and who will pay service fees? Private or partnership-based sorting, refrigeration and packaging centres can then be developed, provided production volume, contracts and professional operations exist. Strategic grain silos are a different case because their national-stock function may justify public capital, with measurable operations and efficiency.

Asset Function Initial financing model KPI
Strategic grain silo Stocks, rotation and quality Public/partnership and professional operation Operating capacity, loss, handling time, cost/tonne.
Fruit and vegetable refrigeration Reducing losses and extending the sales window Private/development finance/limited guarantee Occupancy, before/after losses, producer price.
Sorting and packaging Standardising grades and connecting markets Private/cooperative/anchor company Share meeting grade requirements and contracts.
Refrigerated transport Chain continuity Private Temperature/time/returns.
Quality/safety laboratory Market acceptance and consumer protection Public/service fees/accredited private provider Testing time and conformity rate.

15. Trade, stocks and the agricultural calendar

The regional trade shock in 2026 demonstrated that food enters Iraq through a vital external network. The joint FAO, WFP, World Bank and other partners' note on disruption in the Strait of Hormuz stressed that domestic production does not eliminate the importance of ports and trade routes, and that crisis priorities are continued inputs and staples and market resilience. This supports a ‘three-layer’ model: domestic production, stocks and diversified trade. 18

The agricultural calendar is a legitimate instrument for protecting peak domestic production from seasonal dumping when based on data. In July 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture announced that 33 crop items were covered by import bans under the calendar. The Vision does not turn that number into a target; for each decision, it requires an estimate of domestic supply, stocks, farm-gate, wholesale and retail prices, a time window, quality conditions and an announced review date. If supply falls or prices rise unjustifiably, the import gateway operates automatically under published rules rather than exceptional negotiation. 19

Instrument Function Governing condition
Strategic stocks Absorbing a temporary shock in a storable commodity Official coverage target + rotation + quality transparency.
Source diversification Reducing critical dependence Measure import and route concentration, not a nominal country count.
Agricultural calendar Protecting a domestic harvest window Published price/supply/stock triggers + sunset.
Import facilitation Preventing shortages/price spikes when necessary Digital procedures and controlled health/quality risks.
Government procurement Stocks/safety net/price signal A defined function, known cost and measurable quality.
PDS during a shock Protecting groups' access to food Linked to social protection, not forcing every commodity into domestic production.

16. Farmers, rural areas and agricultural work

Modern agriculture cannot exist while farmers are last to receive information and first to bear shocks. The 2021 Labour Force Survey found that 98.1% of agricultural workers were informally employed. This old baseline nevertheless reveals fragile social and contractual protection, justifying updated measurement in the next survey and caution against assuming that higher output means better rural lives. 20

Turning farmers into commercial producers does not mean eliminating smallholdings or imposing a large company. Farmers need access to water services, extension, finance, insurance, contracts, mechanisation and markets, individually or through voluntary cooperation or a service hub. Agricultural contracts also need rules on quality, delivery, pricing and dispute resolution so that the power imbalance between farmer and buyer does not become exploitation.

Social support must also remain separate from commodity support. If the objective is to protect a poor rural household, social support is more precise than raising the crop price for all producers. If the objective is food security or adoption of water-saving technology, support is designed for that objective and made conditional on outcomes. The chapter preserves the boundary between income policy and production policy so that crop prices do not bear all the state's functions.

Gap Instrument Its limit
Volatile seasonal income Contract/storage/pilot insurance/diversification No permanent profit guarantee.
Smallholding Shared service/voluntary cooperative/mechanisation contractor No forced consolidation.
Informal work Expanded social protection and insurance under labour reforms Do not tie entitlements solely to agricultural support.
Weak bargaining power Reference prices/contract standards and dispute resolution No central pricing for every market.
Poor data access Multichannel digital and field extension Do not exclude those without digital connectivity.

17. International comparisons: mechanisms, not countries

No single country's agriculture can be copied into Iraq. Comparison is useful only when it addresses a specific problem. Three mechanisms suffice for this chapter: irrigation modernisation with water accounting; governance of water distribution and transparent accounts; and non-conventional water use under health and crop standards. A mechanism's success elsewhere does not establish its suitability for Iraq without adjustment, but identifies design questions that must be answered.

Experience Problem Useful Mechanism What transfers to Iraq What Cannot Be Transferred
Morocco Water scarcity and a large irrigation sector Irrigation modernisation + productivity measurement + allocation management Connect technology to measurement and a cap/basin management. Subsidy rates or ownership structure as they stand.
Murray–Darling Basin/Australia Competing uses and a limited resource Precise accounting, withdrawal limits, data and audit Begin with clear rights/allocations and measurement before advanced flexibility. A full water market before establishing the rights register and institutions.
Jordan Water scarcity and agricultural/urban demand Reuse of treated water under standards A supplementary source for suitable crops and locations, with quality monitoring. Treating treatment as a general substitute for fresh water.
WaPOR/Iraq itself Insufficient measurement of water productivity Remote sensing + decision platform Expand an existing tool and connect it to field data. A parallel new platform without integration.

18. Iraqi agriculture in 2045 and the stages of transformation

18.1. The 2045 picture

In 2045, government does not interpret the agricultural season only after it ends. Before planting, there are water budgets, crop portfolios, risk maps, prices and stocks; during the season, water, crops, weather and pests are monitored; after harvest, yield, quality, water, income and losses are measured. Farmers need not pass through a chain of offices to understand their entitlement or service. Food factories know raw-material specifications and timing, government stocks have known quantities, quality and age, and trade opens or tightens according to published signals.

The objective is not to make agriculture a relatively huge share of output at any cost. Agricultural employment's share may fall as productivity and incomes rise, while processing and services surrounding agriculture may grow more than raw-crop value. What matters is that the rural system generates income, value and resilience, and scarce water moves towards uses providing Iraq with the best combination of food, income, security and sustainability.

18.2. Stages of transformation

Phase Priority Exit milestone
2027–2030: establishing the facts Reconcile land and water; establish a water-productivity baseline; audit irrigation equipment; stock and calendar rules; loss baselines. A unified data dashboard and several chains with before/after measurement.
2031–2035: scaling what is proven Expand irrigation, services, varieties, cold chains and land restoration based on results. Finance shifts from purchasing inputs to purchasing outcomes/services.
2036–2040: deepening markets and quality Contracts, exports, safety and traceability, feed and animal health, non-conventional water sources where viable. Multiple chains competing through quality and reliability.
2041–2045: dynamic management A crop portfolio changing with water, climate and trade scenarios; annual updates to food and water objectives. Agricultural decisions based on value/water/resilience, not crop history alone.

19. Indicator and target dashboard

The 2045 dashboard must be small enough to manage and broad enough to prevent superficial improvement. ‘Production’ must not overshadow water, income and losses, nor ‘irrigation efficiency’ conceal acreage expansion. Existing official numerical targets remain through their stated horizon; subsequent targets follow baseline development and evaluation.

Indicator Baseline 2030 2035/2040/2045 Owner/source
Overall irrigation efficiency 46% in 2024 Assess achievement of the official 53% target for 2028; update the baseline Set after the 2028 evaluation using a consistent method Water Resources/Planning 21
Water conveyance and distribution efficiency 76% in 2024 Assess achievement of the 81% target for 2028 New targets following measurement Water Resources 22
Crop water productivity No unified national baseline Establish kg/m3 and IQD/m3 for selected chains Justified sectoral/basin-level improvement Water Resources/Agriculture/Statistics/WaPOR
Wheat production 4.379 million tonnes in 2025 Monitor within a water/demand range, not a single political figure Determined through modelling of population, stocks and water Statistics/Agriculture/Trade 23
Wheat yield 621.1 kg/dunum in 2025 Improvement weighted by water and location Set after 3 comparable seasons Statistics authority 24
Share of modern irrigation actually operating Unavailable nationally Audit the stock of systems and effectively served dunums Expand according to actual water/yield Agriculture/Water Resources
Post-harvest loss No unified baseline Baseline for at least 5 chains Reductions by chain according to feasibility Agriculture/Statistics/private sector
Poultry-project operation 3,008/5,364 producing in 2025, excluding the Region Analyse shutdown causes and restart viable projects A stable operating rate, not a licence count Statistics/Agriculture 25
Concentration of critical commodity imports No unified published measure Source/route/supplier dashboard Reduce critical dependence, not trade as an absolute aim Trade/Customs/Statistics
Strategic-stock coverage No unified auditable figure here A months-of-coverage and rotation methodology Level by commodity and shock Trade/Finance/oversight
Formality of agricultural work 98.1% informal in 2021 Update through the Labour Force Survey Target following the new baseline Statistics/Labour/ILO 26

20. Implementation programme package

P1 — Agricultural-water accounts and productivity atlas

Problem: land, water and crop figures come from different systems and definitions. Objective: build a measurement register linking land, water, crops and value. Intervention: reconcile definitions, map soil and salinity, integrate WaPOR, discharge and crop data, develop value/water accounts and a methodological data register. Natural lead: Ministry of Planning/Statistics Authority with Water Resources and Agriculture; no new authority. Starts in 2027 and becomes a permanent function.

P2 — Irrigation modernisation as a performance service

Problem: confusing equipment purchases with achieved savings. Objective: improve water outcomes, not equipment counts. Intervention: design, installation, training, maintenance, before/after measurement and support linked to operating dunums and results. Leads by mandate: Water Resources for allocations and networks, and Agriculture for field technologies and services, with producers and suppliers. Finance is a public-private mix because water's public benefit does not eliminate the farmer's private benefit.

P3 — A water- and climate-resilient agricultural portfolio

Problem: planting a crop out of habit or in response to the current price. Objective: align crops with water, soil, markets and food security. Intervention: suitability maps, dry/wet-season scenarios, rules for water-intensive crops, tolerant varieties and field trials. The output is not a ‘prohibited list’, but decision signals, incentives and allocations that can be updated.

P4 — Seeds, extension, mechanisation and warning

Problem: knowledge, timing and maintenance gaps. Objective: increase yield and stability and reduce wasted inputs. Intervention: varietal performance, laboratories and soil, seasonal digital and field extension, mechanisation contracting, and pest and weather warnings. Indicator: adoption of a practice and an actual outcome in a monitored sample, not course or message counts.

P5 — The post-harvest and cold-chain compact

Problem: value and water lost between field and market. Objective: reduce losses and improve grades and prices. Intervention: chain-specific loss studies, refrigeration, sorting and packaging centres linked to contracts and production locations, safety laboratories and cold transport. Private finance is the default for commercial assets; the state funds data, standards, public infrastructure or a limited guarantee where a financing gap is demonstrated.

P6 — The food-security network: stocks + trade + calendar

Problem: separate policies for stocks, imports and support. Objective: one shock-responsive network. Intervention: determine stocks by commodity, rotation, import-concentration measurement, alternative routes, a calendar with public triggers, and activation of food-access protection during shocks. Success is not measured by lower imports alone.

P7 — Feed and livestock resilience

Problem: idle assets, volatile feed and disease. Objective: viable operations and animal-product food security. Intervention: diagnose idle projects, a multisource feed strategy, biosecurity and surveillance, energy and refrigeration, and contracting. Rescuing an unviable asset merely because it exists is rejected.

P8 — Restoring land, orchards and a productive countryside

Problem: salinity, degradation, weak orchards and fragile rural areas. Objective: restore lasting productivity, not numerical reclamation. Intervention: drainage, salinity and soil measures, orchard and variety rehabilitation, afforestation/land management where viable, water-user associations and stronger local chains. The USD 39 million Green Climate project in Karbala, Najaf and Muthanna, and the USD 6.6 million FAO/IFAD initiative in four southern governorates, demonstrate financing instruments that can be built upon, but do not estimate the cost of national transformation. 2728

Programme Problem Core output Natural lead
P1 Agricultural-water accounts Inconsistent data Water/land/crop/value in one register Planning/Statistics + Water and Agriculture
P2 Irrigation as a service Equipment without outcome measurement Operating dunums and water/yield before–after Water/Agriculture
P3 Crop portfolio Decisions that do not account for water and risks Allocation/incentive by location and scenario Agriculture + Water + Planning
P4 Knowledge and inputs Variety/extension/timing gap Improved practice and a documented outcome Agriculture/research/universities/private sector
P5 Post-harvest systems Losses and weak prices Reduced losses and improved grade/contract Private sector + Agriculture/standardisation
P6 Food-security network Fragmented instruments Stocks + trade + calendar with triggers Trade + Agriculture and Customs
P7 Livestock Feed/disease/idle assets Operations, health and a resilient feed chain Agriculture/veterinary services/private sector
P8 Land and orchards Salinity/degradation/rural fragility Productive land and resilient orchards Agriculture/Water/Environment/governorates

21. Implementation, cost and financing matrix

21.1. Why there is no ‘total cost of agriculture to 2045’

A single figure for agricultural transformation to 2045 would be misleading. Irrigation-modernisation costs depend on system type, water and energy source, and actual area; reclamation costs depend on salinity and drainage; and refrigeration capacity depends on product, season and market. The Vision therefore uses a gateway methodology: baseline, design, feasibility study, capital and operating and maintenance costs, financing source, public/private benefit, and then decision. Implicit support—subsidised water, electricity, land or purchasing prices—is included in costs, not left outside them.

Cost category Examples Estimation method Initially most suitable financing
A Data and governance Atlas, measurement, integration, surveys Staff + systems + measuring devices + maintenance Existing budget/technical assistance.
B Public water infrastructure Canals, gates, measurement, drainage Design + life-cycle cost + savings/service Public/development/climate finance.
C Field equipment Irrigation, sensors, mechanisation Field feasibility + public water benefit + ability to pay Farmer/bank + conditional grant/guarantee.
D Commercial chain Refrigeration, sorting, packaging, transport Production volume/occupancy/fees/cash flow Private/partnership/development finance.
E Strategic stocks Silos and quality systems Coverage requirement + turnover + losses + operations Public with professional operation/partnership where viable.
F Land restoration Drainage/salinity/orchard/protection Cost/dunum + maintenance + expected value Public-private/climate/beneficiary according to benefit.

21.2. Financing: who pays and why?

The rule is that the private beneficiary pays the portion generating a private return, while the state finances public goods or external benefits that the market cannot capture alone: water measurement, research, plant and animal health, shared infrastructure, strategic stocks and land protection. Climate finance is used where adaptation or emissions/energy-reduction impacts are demonstrated under its conditions, not as free money. Performance contracts, bank financing and limited guarantees can replace full grants for field equipment and refrigeration.

21.3. Phased implementation matrix

Action Lead Partners Phase Monitoring indicator Risk
Reconcile land and water data Planning / Statistics Water, Agriculture, the Region, governorates 2027-2030 Consistent dictionary/maps/series Definition/data-ownership disputes
Expand WaPOR/flow measurement Water Resources Agriculture, FAO, universities 2027-2035 Projects/basins with water/crop measurement A platform without decisions
Audit operating modern irrigation Agriculture/Water Statistics, suppliers, farmers 2027-2030 Operating dunums and before–after measurement Counting contracts as achievements
Loss baseline for 5 chains Statistics/Agriculture Private sector, Trade, universities 2027-2030 Loss rate under a published methodology Non-comparable estimates
Trigger-based calendar rules Agriculture/Trade Customs, Statistics, consumer protection 2027–2030, then permanent A decision stating supply/price/stocks/duration Permanent protection
Restart viable poultry projects Agriculture Private sector, banks, veterinary services 2027-2035 Operating rate and biosecurity Rescuing an unviable asset
Refrigeration and sorting contracts Private sector/investment Agriculture, governorates, banks 2028-2040 Occupancy, reduced losses and contracts Empty infrastructure
Restore land and orchards Agriculture/Water/Environment Governorates, climate finance, farmers 2027-2045 Productivity/salinity after 3–5 years Renewed degradation

22. Risks and safeguards

The greatest risk to long-term agricultural policy is not the absence of a project, but an instrument becoming a permanent, unreviewed interest: unconditional purchasing support, an automatically renewed import ban, an irrigation device counted as an achievement while idle, or reclamation announced in dunums and never measured years later. Every instrument is therefore tied to a review date, an outcome indicator and a data owner.

Risk How does it arise? Effect Warning signal Safeguard
Nominal irrigation efficiency Equipment distribution without water measurement Spending without savings/productivity No before–after data Service contract + sample audit.
Water rebound Technology saves per dunum, then acreage expands No basin-level saving Total withdrawals do not fall/improve Cap/allocation and basin measurement.
Costly self-sufficiency Producing a commodity with excessive water/support Depletion and rising costs Rising support/tonne and water/tonne Opportunity-cost and risk test.
Permanent import protection A ban after peak supply ends Higher prices and weaker competition Retail prices rise/stocks fall Published triggers and sunset.
Rent-generating government procurement Quantity guarantee without quality/water conditions Distorted portfolio Low-efficiency expansion Quality grades and a defined stock function.
Unsustainable reclamation Salinity returns after the project A deteriorating asset EC/drainage worsens O&M and 5-year monitoring.
Refrigeration without produce A new store with low occupancy Idle capital Occupancy below the viability threshold Volume/user contract before investment.
Excessive monitoring data Linking support/tenure to unnecessary personal data Trust and rights Expanding purposes of use Data minimisation, privacy and permissions.
Excluding small producers Financing criteria accessible only to large producers Concentration/rural displacement Low access share Shared services and graduated guarantees.
Import shock A single route/country is disrupted Shortage/price spike High concentration and weak stocks Diversification, stocks and contingency plan.

22.1. Rights and social safeguards

Agricultural water management needs enforcement, but must not become policing of the countryside. Tenure rights, objections and transparency in allocations and contracts must be clear. Any allocation reduction in a scarcity season requires a published rule and timely information allowing farmers to change decisions. Remote-sensing or agricultural-register data must not be used to expand surveillance beyond services and specifically defined lawful enforcement.

Nor should farmers alone bear the cost of a transition the state decides upon for a public water benefit. When policy requires technology or a change generating basin-level or climate benefits beyond the holding's benefit, temporary conditional public contributions may be justified. This does not justify funding capital, operations and profits indefinitely.

23. Conclusion and the bridge to investment and the private sector

Strong agriculture is defined not by its ability to colour the map green, but by its ability to turn water, land, labour and knowledge into food, income and value, then preserve that ability when a dry season arrives or a trade route is disrupted. In water-scarce Iraq, measuring water's value becomes part of food security, not a threat to it: strategic cereals receive a security weighting, commercial crops a value weighting, and all face the test of location, cost and resilience.

The chapter therefore shifts the policy unit from the ‘crop’ alone to the ‘system’: water + soil + variety + farmer + market + storage + trade. When this chain works, the food industry discussed in the preceding chapter can obtain consistently high-quality inputs, rural areas can generate jobs and incomes, and stocks and trade can become a safety net rather than an admission of agricultural failure.

Most of this transformation, however, will not be managed through the state budget and direct investment alone. Irrigation equipment, cold storage, mechanisation, contracting, finance, insurance, agricultural companies and logistics require private capital and predictable investment, competition and financing rules. The next chapter, V2-D04-C05 — Investment and the Private Sector — takes up the question: how can the state make productive investment, including agriculture, more attractive than rent-seeking trade and speculation, and distribute risks between state and investor without privatising profits and socialising losses?

Methodological note on the data

Research was frozen on 5 October 2026. The Statistics Authority's 2025 wheat and poultry results were adopted as the latest detailed Iraqi reports that could be verified, while FAO's 2026 brief was used as a seasonal update with a different year and coverage. The 2026 estimates were not merged into the 2025 series, and procurement or stock quantities were not equated with production. The discrepancy between 13.5 and 28 million dunums was recorded rather than reconciled by assumption. Numerical targets after 2028 were not invented: where no valid baseline exists, the chapter requires one to be established first.

Confidence and use register

Evidence category Use in the Chapter Confidence level / limitation
Final Iraqi statistics/survey report Production, yield, poultry and land baseline under published coverage High; with exclusions and definitions respected.
Approved government plan 2028 targets, irrigation efficiency and growth trajectory High as a government target; not an achieved result.
Seasonal international estimate 2026 seasonal signal and import/production comparison Medium–high; not merged with the Iraqi series without harmonisation.
Operational official statement/news Evidence of an activity or instrument such as the calendar Medium; not converted into a baseline without a methodology.
Internationally funded project Evidence that a financing/implementation instrument is possible High for the project's existence; does not estimate a national cost.
Unmeasured gap Water productivity/losses/import concentration and others No figure; a baseline is established in 2027–2030.

Principal references and sources

  1. Iraqi Ministry of Planning, Summary of the National Development Plan 2024–2028: agricultural growth trajectory, agriculture's contribution, public/private composition and irrigation-efficiency targets — Online source
  2. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Wheat and Barley Production 2025, published in 2026 — Online source
  3. FAO, GIEWS Country Brief - Iraq, reference date 1 September 2026: cereal production and import requirements — Online source
  4. FAO WaPOR, handover of the water-use and productivity monitoring tool for the West Gharraf project to the Ministry of Water Resources, 25 May 2026 — Online source
  5. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Key Environmental/Agricultural Statistical Indicators 2022–2024: suitable land and winter season — Online source
  6. FAO/AGROVOC and Committee on World Food Security terminology: food security dimensions - availability, access, utilization and stability — Online source
  7. FAO Iraq, FAO and Iraqi Government Partners Advance Climate-Smart Solutions in Najaf — mechanized rice transplanting, 15 June 2026 — Online source
  8. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Poultry Report 2025, published in March 2026, excluding the Kurdistan Region — Online source
  9. United Nations in Iraq / FAO, IOM, ITC, World Bank, WFP, Agriculture and Food Security in Iraq: Impact of Regional Developments - Strait of Hormuz Closure, Issue #2, 14 July 2026 — Online source
  10. Ministry of Agriculture via the Iraqi News Agency, agricultural calendar and import ban on 33 crop items, 25 July 2026 — Online source
  11. ILO/CSO/KRSO, Iraq Labour Force Survey 2021; and the ILO's statement that 98.1% of agricultural workers are in informal jobs — Online source
  12. FAO/Government of Iraq, Strengthening Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Agricultural Livelihoods in Southern Iraq (SRVALI), total investment USD 39 million, 26 May 2025 — Online source
  13. FAO/Ministry of Agriculture/IFAD, USD 6.6 million initiative supporting smallholder farmers in Muthanna, Qadisiyah, Maysan and Dhi Qar, 11 May 2026 — Online source
  14. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Agricultural Indicators, website update 2 October 2026 — Online source
  15. FAO, irrigation modernization and water productivity methodology, WaPOR/irrigation modernization resources — Online source
  16. Ministry of Environment/Iraqi bodies, National Strategy for Environmental Protection and Improvement 2024–2030, via FAOLEX — Online source

Footnotes

  1. Iraqi Ministry of Planning, Summary of the National Development Plan 2024–2028: agricultural growth trajectory, agriculture's contribution, public/private composition and irrigation-efficiency targets — Source link ↩︎

  2. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Wheat and Barley Production 2025, published in 2026 — Source link ↩︎

  3. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Wheat and Barley Production 2025, published in 2026 — Source link ↩︎

  4. FAO, GIEWS Country Brief - Iraq, reference date 1 September 2026: cereal production and import requirements — Source link ↩︎

  5. Iraqi Ministry of Planning, Summary of the National Development Plan 2024–2028: agricultural growth trajectory, agriculture's contribution, public/private composition and irrigation-efficiency targets — Source link ↩︎

  6. FAO WaPOR, handover of the water-use and productivity monitoring tool for the West Gharraf project to the Ministry of Water Resources, 25 May 2026 — Source link ↩︎

  7. Iraqi Ministry of Planning, Summary of the National Development Plan 2024–2028: agricultural growth trajectory, agriculture's contribution, public/private composition and irrigation-efficiency targets — Source link ↩︎

  8. Iraqi Ministry of Planning, Summary of the National Development Plan 2024–2028: agricultural growth trajectory, agriculture's contribution, public/private composition and irrigation-efficiency targets — Source link ↩︎

  9. Iraqi Ministry of Planning, Summary of the National Development Plan 2024–2028: agricultural growth trajectory, agriculture's contribution, public/private composition and irrigation-efficiency targets — Source link ↩︎

  10. Iraqi Ministry of Planning, Summary of the National Development Plan 2024–2028: agricultural growth trajectory, agriculture's contribution, public/private composition and irrigation-efficiency targets — Source link ↩︎

  11. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Key Environmental/Agricultural Statistical Indicators 2022–2024: suitable land and winter season — Source link ↩︎

  12. FAO/AGROVOC and Committee on World Food Security terminology: food security dimensions - availability, access, utilization and stability — Source link ↩︎

  13. FAO WaPOR, handover of the water-use and productivity monitoring tool for the West Gharraf project to the Ministry of Water Resources, 25 May 2026 — Source link ↩︎

  14. Iraqi Ministry of Planning, Summary of the National Development Plan 2024–2028: agricultural growth trajectory, agriculture's contribution, public/private composition and irrigation-efficiency targets — Source link ↩︎

  15. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Wheat and Barley Production 2025, published in 2026 — Source link ↩︎

  16. FAO Iraq, FAO and Iraqi Government Partners Advance Climate-Smart Solutions in Najaf — mechanized rice transplanting, 15 June 2026 — Source link ↩︎

  17. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Poultry Report 2025, published in March 2026, excluding the Kurdistan Region — Source link ↩︎

  18. United Nations in Iraq / FAO, IOM, ITC, World Bank, WFP, Agriculture and Food Security in Iraq: Impact of Regional Developments - Strait of Hormuz Closure, Issue #2, 14 July 2026 — Source link ↩︎

  19. Ministry of Agriculture via the Iraqi News Agency, agricultural calendar and import ban on 33 crop items, 25 July 2026 — Source link ↩︎

  20. ILO/CSO/KRSO, Iraq Labour Force Survey 2021; and the ILO's statement that 98.1% of agricultural workers are in informal jobs — Source link ↩︎

  21. Iraqi Ministry of Planning, Summary of the National Development Plan 2024–2028: agricultural growth trajectory, agriculture's contribution, public/private composition and irrigation-efficiency targets — Source link ↩︎

  22. Iraqi Ministry of Planning, Summary of the National Development Plan 2024–2028: agricultural growth trajectory, agriculture's contribution, public/private composition and irrigation-efficiency targets — Source link ↩︎

  23. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Wheat and Barley Production 2025, published in 2026 — Source link ↩︎

  24. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Wheat and Barley Production 2025, published in 2026 — Source link ↩︎

  25. Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority, Poultry Report 2025, published in March 2026, excluding the Kurdistan Region — Source link ↩︎

  26. ILO/CSO/KRSO, Iraq Labour Force Survey 2021; and the ILO's statement that 98.1% of agricultural workers are in informal jobs — Source link ↩︎

  27. FAO/Government of Iraq, Strengthening Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Agricultural Livelihoods in Southern Iraq (SRVALI), total investment USD 39 million, 26 May 2025 — Source link ↩︎

  28. FAO/Ministry of Agriculture/IFAD, USD 6.6 million initiative supporting smallholder farmers in Muthanna, Qadisiyah, Maysan and Dhi Qar, 11 May 2026 — Source link ↩︎

Iraq Vision 2045 · Part Four: The Economy and National Production · V2-D04-C04Prepared by:

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